There is now wave in UP. This time managing the caste equations is the key factor here. The Muslims are voting for SP-Congress alliance. Mayavathi has given 90 percents of her seats to Muslims. Home Minister Rajnath Singh, feels that as voting entered the third phase, the BJP was doing much better. He expects the BJP to get an absolute majority. Given that in a house of 403, that means getting 202 seats.
Direct attacks have become the order for the day, with the PM asking how you can trust a man who has “killed his father” and Akhilesh talking about the “donkeys of Gujarat”.
Caste is still the single most important criterion in UP. Villages are divided into bastis for Rajputs, Brahmins, Yadavs and Dalits. There also Muslim areas. How the mix plays in each village is important. So far, the traditional equations seem to have held: the upper castes with the BJP, the Muslims and Yadavs with the Alliance, and the Dalits and some Muslims with Mayawati.
She has consistently polled above 20% in the last four elections; now, in a three-cornered fight, her level of support is critical in deciding where this election is going. Over the last few elections, Mayawati has been losing support among part of her core constituency.
The Modi Government’s Ujjawal Yojana, the distribution of free LPG cylinders among the poorer sections, has had an enormous impact. With more than 34 lakh cylinders given in UP, many voters are assigning their support for the BJP to this one single act.
The Alliance actually fears that that if Mayawati’s support slips, the BJP will gain enormously. It seems that 80% of the Muslim vote would go to the Alliance. With a 20% voter share in UP, this means the Alliance has a starting base of 16%.
This cuts both ways, with many Hindus openly admitting that they are only voting for the BJP because it seems all Muslims are voting for the Alliance.
So the result could be tight and it could be 51 BJP and 41 Alliance in UP.
