India will see normal monsoon this year, the India Meteorological Department said on Tuesday, indicating timely arrival and even distribution of the seasonal rains that are crucial to the country’s economy.
It will be the second consecutive year with normal rain after India suffered back-to-back drought in 2014-15, only the fourth consecutive failed monsoons in over a century that hurt incomes and drove many farmers to suicide.
“India is in for a normal monsoon which will be good for agriculture and economy,” KJ Ramesh, the director general of IMD, told reporters in the long-range forecast for 2017. IMD issues another updated forecast in June.
The forecast is also critical to the government’s hopes of achieving a projected growth rate of more than 7.5%. The monsoon rain also helps bring down temperatures across the country though there are predictions that the summer months this year will see the mercury rise to record levels.
He said rainfall will be 96% of the long-period average with a margin of 5% error. India defines average, or normal, rainfall as between 96 percent and 104 percent of a 50-year average of 89 cm for the entire four-month season.
There is a 38% probability that the monsoon will be better than 96%, he added.
