Prime Minister Narendra Modi says the BJP will form the Government in UP. The grass roots in Mumbai have not voted against the demonetisation and Modi. In fact the raised the bar for BJP with Shiv Sena. They are against the Congress.
The politcal pandits and the poll pandits are of the opinion that the there could a similar viting pattern for the SP and BJP in UP also.
The BJP and its cadres along with around 70 MPs are monitoring the prospects of the party in each constituency based on independent survey inputs, and planning the rest of the campaign. The party claims it will make it past the majority mark, and offers two broad reasons for this. Home Minister Rajnath Singh said that the BJP will get more than 250 seats.
Breaking down the demographic data, a source close to the party and the chief Strategist of the UP says : “As much as 83% of the upper castes, 17% Yadavs, 73% non-Yadav OBCs, 25% Jatavs and 50% non-Jatavs are voting for BJP.”Now this may rise after the BJPs victory in Mumbai.
The party is confident of garnering a vote share of around 35%, they added.The second reason lies in the BJP’s belief of a split in the Muslim vote bank. “They are not voting to elect the government. They are voting to elect MLAs. And so, they are voting differently in each seat – sometimes for the Congress-Samajwadi alliance, sometimes for the BSP.
It would have been difficult for us if they were voting unitedly, but this split works to the BJPs advantage,” the party strategists in UP added.
Only on March 11 will we know if the BJP’s assessments are correct. However, one thing remains certain – if the BJP wins we can say that the PM has already booked his berth for another term of 5 years. The 2019 will be a cake walk for the BJP.
U.Srinivas
