In Telangana, the TRS is well-placed. In Andhra Pradesh, there is no hope for the BJP. It is only a matter of time before the Telugu Desam walks out of the NDA.
KCR has already sounded his anti-Modi stand. In Odisha, the recent by-election saw a thumping victory for the BJD. The Congress vote collapsed in a seat the Congress had won in 2014.
But the beneficiary was not the BJP –
it was the BJD. People are looking for third-party (non-Congress, non-BJP) options, where these are available and viable.
The BJP now believes Tripura will set the trend for other elections, from Karnataka this summer to the Lok Sabha in 2019 to Bengal in 2021 . More than the BJP’s victory, Tripura represented the CPI(M)’s defeat.
In 2014, the BJP won 71 seats from UP. Extrapolating from the by-elections and other trends, quantitative and qualitative, one can safely conclude that the BJP is going to lose at least 50 of these 71 seats.
Then the future of BJP and Modi is bleak for the 2019 polls. With KCR and company raising the voice against centre it may not be easy for the Modi -Shah Jodi.
