Telangana CM KCR says he will make Bangaru Bharat that is Golden India. But the Majority of the Opinion Polls say that Yogi will make a come back in UP.
All opinion polls say that BJP will be reduced by 50 to 80 seats. Still, BJP will get a majority. Opinion polls also suggest Yogi has an acceptance of 51% and above whereas Akhilesh is lagging behind with 35% acceptance. But it looks very difficult.
If BJP gets UP, the Bangaru Bharat concept will just become a pipedream for KCR.
In 2019 BJP got 50% vote share in UP. Still, BJP could get only 63 seats. because the fight was almost direct between BJP and Gatbandhan of SP+BSP. In 2022 assembly elections, the fight is direct between BJP and SP.
Hence even 50% may not be sufficient to reach 300 mark for Yogi. Probably BJP may have to get 55% plus vote share to get 300 seats which is impossible as of now. However, we cannot say how the voters behave on election day.
There are nearly 50 to 60 seats where minorities decide the outcome. Minorities are strong supporters of SP. Hence these seats are not going to be won by BJP. In another 30 to 40 seats Yadavs are deciding the outcome. They support SP.
Hence nearly 80 to 100 seats are out of bounds for BJP. Therefore BJP will not be able to reach the 300 mark this time.
In 2017 BJP was able to score 312 because of the three-cornered fight. As the fight is direct between BJP and SP it may be highly unlikely that BJP will get 300 seats.
