Donald Trump is attempting to crack Hillary Clinton’s blue wall. And Clinton is hoping for a surge in Latino turnout fueled by opposition to Trump.
The two candidates are making a last-minute dash across swing states like Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina as the 2016 presidential race enters its final hours. They’ve also gone north to Michigan and New Hampshire to states Democrats have won in recent cycles but could flip this year.
For a nation divided by a long, bitter contest, this could be the most important question of all: Will the loser concede — and how will he or she do it?
Trump and Clinton are both historically unpopular presidential nominees. Half the country thinks Clinton is a crook, and the other half thinks Trump is a racist and misogynist.
And Trump, in particular, has cast the election as rigged — calling into question whether ballots that are mailed in will be counted, playing up inaccurate reports of voter irregularities and claiming that voter fraud is pervasive.
The loser will play a crucial role in legitimizing the victor — or delegitimizing the winner from the outset.
Trump’s biggest strength is his overwhelming support from disaffected white voters — particularly men, and especially those without college degrees.
His campaign has long argued that those voters — many of them independent or Democrats who buy into Trump’s protectionist stance on trade — will carry him on Election Day.
For this to happen, Trump will also need core Democratic voters to stay at home, as well.
Already, Trump appears poised to win Iowa, and has polled ahead of Clinton in Ohio. He’s hoping to win enough blue-collar Democrats in Pennsylvania or Michigan to win at least one of those states.
Michigan, in particular, emerged as a tempting target in the campaign’s closing days — a state hard-hit by the trade deals Trump bemoans. Clinton’s campaign raced to play defense, dispatching the former secretary of state there, as well as President Barack Obama, for last-minute rallies.
If Hillary Clinton wins, her coalition will consist of women, college-educated voters and a swell of new Latino voters.
In early voting in states like Nevada, and Florida, there’s already evidence of burgeoning Latino turnout. This is best witnessed by the over 57,000 people who voted in Nevada Friday, with pictures of long lines and extended hours at a Latino grocery store in Clark County.
Many first-time voters, polls show, are turning out to oppose Trump. And Democrats are bullish that Latinos have been under-polled through the entire 2016 election cycle.
For Reince Priebus, the Republican National Committee chairman, this is a ghost of elections past. After the 2012 race, the RNC warned that the party needed to do more to court Latino voters. A nominee who roundly rejected that advice could be the reason the party loses a third consecutive presidential race.
Just as Trump’s attacks on Mexican immigrants have alienated Latino voters, his attacks on women and allegations of sexual assault have helped Clinton to a large lead among female voters. Clinton’s campaign has highlighted Trump’s most derogatory remarks in TV ads aimed at moderate, suburban women — a constituency that has helped Republican nominees in years past. If she succeeds, it would limit Trump’s strengths to rural areas.
